Two previously published papers (Vaver and Koehler, 2011, 2012) describe a model
for analyzing geo experiments. This model was designed to measure advertising
effectiveness using the rigor of a randomized experiment with replication across
geographic units providing confidence interval estimates. While effective, this
geo-based regression (GBR) approach is less applicable, or not applicable at all,
for situations in which few geographic units are available for testing (e.g.
smaller countries, or subregions of larger countries) These situations also include
the so-called matched market tests, which may compare the behavior of users in a
single control region with the behavior of users in a single test region. To fill
this gap, we have developed an analogous time-based regression (TBR) approach for
analyzing geo experiments. This methodology predicts the time series of the
counterfactual market response, allowing for direct estimation of the cumulative
causal effect at the end of the experiment. In this paper we describe this model
and evaluate its performance using simulation.